We are six weeks out from what may be the most consequential election of our lifetime, and the presidential race remains a statistical tie.
The Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is a narcissistic charlatan who will say anything to grab the spotlight and fire up his base. He had never held elected office before being elected president in 2016. Despite his grandiose claims, he has the lowest approval rating of any president in history. He abused the power of his office, lies incessantly, and has been indicted on multiple fronts and convicted of 34 felonies.
Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has served as prosecutor, attorney general, senator, and vice president. She was loyal to President Joe Biden until the day he ended his campaign for re-election and endorsed her. Since then, she has united the party, broken fundraising records, selected a running mate, and brought new energy to the Democratic party. Even some Fox News personalities admitted that she bested Trump in the recent debate.
So how is she not leading in the polls? I think there are three reasons: Trump’s fear mongering, the economy, and the persistence of racism and sexism.
Be Afraid – Be Very Afraid!
Here in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania, we get a steady diet of election ads, which are all about Harris. Her campaign ads tell me about her background, her record, and her plans. If Trump is mentioned, the ad quickly pivots to how Harris is different. Trump ads are about how horrible things will be if Harris wins the election. He is a one-trick pony who has been running the same campaign for eight years, swapping in a new name for each new opponent.
Trump has been fear mongering since he rode down that golden escalator in 2016 and said we were being overrun by Mexican immigrants and Muslim extremists. Immigration is his go-to issue, as we saw in the debate when he repeated that the border was out of control, regardless of what he had been asked. He conveniently ignored the fact that border crossings are down since Biden took executive action in June, Biden’s only recourse after Trump encouraged Republicans to torpedo a bipartisan border bill so he could campaign on the issue.
He also uses fear mongering to discredit the election process. Trump has yet to win the popular vote, so claiming election fraud may be the only way he can claim victory. But this too is all based on lies. Election fraud is extremely rare in the US, with only a few suspected cases in 2020 — many of them involving Trump supporters trying to vote twice. Even so, the far right continues to buy into his lies. In addition to storming the capitol on January 6, they have threatened local election workers, who are resigning in record numbers.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
Although presidents have only indirect influence on the economy, they receive an outsize portion of blame or credit for its performance. According to economists, we currently have healthy economic indicators like a high stock market, low unemployment, and slowing inflation. Yet voters are swayed by the cost of necessities like food, housing, and gasoline. Right now all three are higher than they were during the Trump presidency.
Food and gas have long been artificially cheap, as we relied on subsidies and efficient distribution systems that were disrupted by the pandemic. But efficient does not mean resilient, and supply chains are still recovering. In addition, the war in Ukraine has affected the cost of wheat and gas. Few Americans take these factors into account. They simply know they were better off under Trump.1
Race and Gender
The third factor, and perhaps most intractable, is the fact that Harris is a woman of color. Many white men feel threatened by increasing diversity and by seeing more women and people of color move into leadership. Trumps plays on these fears by invoking conspiracy theories about a “great replacement,” as he did in the recent debate.
Noting that Trump carried the white vote in every age group, Ta-Nehisi Coates makes a strong argument for his election in 2016 being the reassertion of white supremacy following the country’s first black president.2 However, Trump’s opponent, Hilary Clinton, was also white – and a woman.
Coates and other men fail to understand how difficult it is for most Americans to imagine women in leadership. I suspect that both Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris stick to pantsuits for the same reason I always wore one for the first few days teaching a college class: because we more closely resemble the men who have traditionally held authority in those settings.
Because these biases operate on an unconscious level, many people who consider themselves open minded may find it difficult to support Harris, without realizing why. They will buy into Trump’s lies about her, question her “leadership ability,” or find some other reason to feel she is not up to the task.
Just last week, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced that they would not endorse either candidate, claiming that neither one had definitive support among its membership. Although Harris was part of the pro-union Biden administration, this marks the first time since the 1990s that the Teamsters have not endorsed the Democratic nominee.3
Think Again
I hope that voters who find they cannot get excited about Harris will pause before voting Republican or not voting at all. Dig a little deeper into the charges that the Trump campaign levels at her. Examine her plans for addressing economic factors that concern middle class Americans. Think seriously about Trump’s stated goals for a second term, which would be catastrophic for democracy, the climate, and progress on many social issues.
If nothing else, think about their personal demeanors and how each would color our public life. Would you rather spend the next four years watching Donald Trump scowl and spew hate, anger, and false accusations, while continuing to escalate violent rhetoric? Or would you rather experience the optimism, joy, and promise of a better future that we saw on display at the Democratic Convention in August? The choice could not be more stark.
- Trump fans also fail to realize that the mass deportation he promises will include many low wage workers, especially in agriculture, thus driving up the cost of food even further. ↩︎
- Coates discusses this in the Epilogue of his 2017 book We Were Eight Years in Power: An American Tragedy. ↩︎
- While I could not find a gender breakdown of the Teamsters membership, it appears to be largely male organization. News reports indicate that 60% of members support Trump, who recently said that anyone who goes on strike should be fired. ↩︎